Deadline trade lab

Build a trade

Put together a deal, see how the value lines up, and tune any assumption.

Market curve$12M + 30% above 2 net WAR

2026 valuationDepth Charts RoS + remaining salary

Roster burden0.5 / 0.2 fWAR by role

Timing lensNeutral · no discount

Outgoing packagesSeattle Mariners receives Pittsburgh Pirates’s package · Pittsburgh Pirates receives Seattle Mariners’s package

TeamSeattle Mariners sends

$163.2M

Cash sent / salary retained by SEA$M

TeamPittsburgh Pirates sends

$185.2M

Cash sent / salary retained by PIT$M

SEA sends$163.2MRange $136.0M–$190.5M

Ranges overlapGap: $22.0M

Pittsburgh Pirates sends more estimated value

PIT sends$185.2MRange $150.2M–$220.3M

Julio Rodríguez must approve a trade · surplus value is unchanged

Control years

Value by control year

YearSEA sendsAnnual comparisonPIT sends

2026$18.4M

$26.9M

2027$47.9M

$59.7M

2028$48.3M

$53.6M

2029$48.7M

$45.0M

2030$0.0M

$0.0M

2031$0.0M

$0.0M

2032$0.0M

$0.0M

2033$0.0M

$0.0M

2034$0.0M

$0.0M

Adjust valuation

Paul Skenes

PITSPAge 24

ProjectionFanGraphs Depth Charts RoS (2026) · ZiPS future · ZiPS/Steamer rolling talent update

Contract / controlFanGraphs RosterResource · role-specific arbitration estimates

Updated July 21, 2026

TradeabilityNo listed protection

No clause is listed in the contract feed; confirm 10-and-5 rights before a real deal.

2026 is rest-of-season only. fWAR, the free-WAR threshold, and salary are reduced to the remaining season. Future arbitration starts from the full-year salary ($1.1M). Every arbitration year prices the latest full-season platform stats against the player's arbitration class. For repeat-eligible players, it also carries the previous award into a performance-based raise path; neither input controls the estimate by itself.

Player uncertainty 12 pointsTwo points add one percentage point to each side of the value range. This changes the range, never the central value.

fWAR by control year2026 is Depth Charts RoS; future ZiPS is updated with today's ZiPS/Steamer talent signal.

In-season talent bridge+0.2 fWAR / 180 IP

Not season-to-date WAR

The model carries forward the change in projected talent rate—not the wins already produced.

20275.2 ZiPS+0.1 update5.3 fWAR

20285.1 ZiPS+0.1 update5.2 fWAR

20294.9 ZiPS+0.1 update5.0 fWAR

How was this adjustment built?

Each projection system is compared only with itself: today's ZiPS RoS rate versus preseason ZiPS, and today's neutral-playing-time Steamer Update rate versus preseason Steamer. The available changes—normally both—are averaged, applied to the future workload, and 50% is carried into next season. The carried signal then decays by 15% per additional year.

ZiPS5.0 → 5.3fWAR / 180 IP · +0.4

Steamer update5.3 → 5.4fWAR / 180 IP · +0.1

YearfWARPay typeSalarySurplus

$26.9M

$10.0Mplatform stats$59.7M

$16.5Mplatform + prior pay$53.6M

$23.8Mplatform + prior pay$45.0M

Projected surplus$185.2M

Range $150.2M–$220.3M

Includes 3% extra long-range uncertainty