Deadline trade lab

Build a trade

Put together a deal, see how the value lines up, and tune any assumption.

Market curve$12M + 30% above 2 net WAR

2026 valuationDepth Charts RoS + remaining salary

Roster burden0.5 / 0.2 fWAR by role

Timing lensNeutral · no discount

Outgoing packagesSeattle Mariners receives Pittsburgh Pirates’s package · Pittsburgh Pirates receives Seattle Mariners’s package

TeamSeattle Mariners sends

$143.8M

Cash sent / salary retained by SEA$M

TeamPittsburgh Pirates sends

$170.5M

Cash sent / salary retained by PIT$M

SEA sends$143.8MRange $119.9M–$167.7M

Ranges overlapGap: $26.7M

Pittsburgh Pirates sends more estimated value

PIT sends$170.5MRange $138.7M–$202.2M

Julio Rodríguez must approve a trade · surplus value is unchanged

Control years

Value by control year

YearSEA sendsAnnual comparisonPIT sends

2026$18.9M

$41.4M

2027$41.5M

$48.5M

2028$43.3M

$42.6M

2029$40.1M

$38.0M

2030$0.0M

$0.0M

2031$0.0M

$0.0M

2032$0.0M

$0.0M

2033$0.0M

$0.0M

2034$0.0M

$0.0M

Adjust valuation

Paul Skenes

PITSPAge 24

ProjectionFanGraphs Depth Charts RoS (2026) · ZiPS Trade Value Series update (2027–31)

Contract / controlFanGraphs RosterResource · role-specific arbitration estimates

Updated July 31, 2026

TradeabilityNo listed protection

No clause is listed in the contract feed; confirm 10-and-5 rights before a real deal.

2026 is rest-of-season only. fWAR, the free-WAR threshold, and salary are reduced to the remaining season. Future arbitration starts from the full-year salary ($1.1M). Every arbitration year prices the latest full-season platform stats against the player's arbitration class. For repeat-eligible players, it also carries the previous award into a performance-based raise path; neither input controls the estimate by itself.

Deadline lens$18.3M added

+15% current wins · $14.8M October rotation valueBaseline $152.2M → deadline $170.5M. This represents extra willingness to pay for current wins, not the buyer's negotiating power. $3.5M comes from the general deadline market and $14.8M from concentrated playoff usage above a 2-WAR net rotation benchmark. Salary, future control, and option costs are unchanged.

Player uncertainty 12 pointsTwo points add one percentage point to each side of the value range. This changes the range, never the central value.

fWAR by control year2026 is Depth Charts RoS; future ZiPS is updated with today's role-aware ZiPS signal.

YearfWARPay typeSalarySurplus

$41.4M

$9.9Mplatform stats$48.5M

$14.3Mplatform + prior pay$42.6M

$18.9Mplatform + prior pay$38.0M

Projected surplus$170.5M

Range $138.7M–$202.2M

Includes 3% extra long-range uncertainty